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There are at least two prevailing views about the potential of New Brunswick's emerging economic identity. Believers assert that over the next twenty years, if not sooner, New Brunswick will be on the road to being a self-sustaining economic culture. Skeptics respond that its growth is bound to falter amid the environmental, social and political problems deeply rooted in its history.

While these two perspectives may be persuasive and compelling to each of their constituencies, they are simplistic. New Brunswick has become difficult even for insiders to see clearly in part because it is a transforming business environment.

There are at least three elements in New Brunswick's future stemming from the cultural, economic, and political evolution of this unique province that will produce different outcomes from the way many outsiders suspect.

First, the momentum of entrepreneurship will provide an unprecedented level of competence for New Brunswick enterprises. After growing up with the limitations presented by an inward-looking focus on local markets, businesspeople have begun to call that perspective into question.

Now, the potential of success suffuses the minds of fledgling entrepreneurs. Young businesspeople, driven by ambition and with a sense of the opportunity of global integration, are eager to compete beyond New Brunswick's borders. Nurtured by bootstrapping enablers such as 21inc and propelICT, they now see themselves as among the Government will realize that to turn startups or young firms into competitive enterprises it will need to support much stronger management capabilities. Executives will regularly attend management and organization development training sessions, held at top academic institutions where they will be exposed to cutting-edge management philosophy and techniques.

Industries will be on a global watch for companies that will help New Brunswick build up its strategic reserves in management expertise. New Brunswick will no longer be an isolated place, and its bridge to the outside world will be a growing cadre of people who are comfortable everywhere.

Second, the emphasis on relentless experimentation and innovation will make New Brunswick a productive environment for economic growth.

Financial support for research and development will substantially increase. New Brunswick will be a regular stop on pilgrimages made by venture capitalists. Universities and industry associations will collaborate to create business incubators offering cheap rents, technical infrastructure and marketing expertise. Government will dramatically increase support to university technical programs to raise them to world-class status and will redouble incentives to encourage universities, professors and returning students to commercialize their research.

Perhaps the most salient quality of the new innovators will be their willingness to take chances and learn from failure. They will require a relatively low burden of proof when deciding to invest in a new product or technology. Speed will characterize every action and they will learn from one another since word travels quickly about practices and results.

Incremental innovation will lead to breakthroughs that appear far more original than anything emerging from New Brunswick today. Some technological developments will seem to come out of nowhere and could have transformative effects everywhere.

Third, global ambition will allow New Brunswick to foster sustained growth in the emerging markets of the developing world. The significant trend will be New Brunswick's increasing investment in other countries, particularly in the developing world including Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa.

The best companies will quickly develop sophisticated supply chains, brands, research labs and financial infrastructure. Even if only a small percentage of globally-oriented entrepreneurs cross this threshold, it will have a striking impact on the business community. And many business leaders are eager for that maturation.

Some of this investment represents what we may call the new "Quiet Power" of New Brunswick but it will also be the natural consequence of a confident global entrepreneurialism.

These three trends will be unexpected only because they are not fully visible. In the end, New Brunswick is facing a very exciting prospect: its first chance of a renaissance in more than one hundred years.

Peter Lindfield is president and CEO of Balanced Viewpoint Inc. He lives in the Fredericton area and can be reached at peter.lindfield@balancedviewpoint.com.