Link to original article

Industry leaders stay optimistic amid the sweeping global economic storm

SAINT JOHN - If Irving Oil moves forward with the proposed second refinery it would play a key role in New Brunswick's recovery from the forecast slowdown in economic growth.

"It could support growth investment activity in the near term" said Patrick Brannon, research analyst for the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council, at its Outlook Conference held in Saint John Tuesday.

If the Unites States economy begins to recover, and the oil refinery goes ahead then New Brunswick could recover from the growth slide in 2010, said David Chaundy senior economist for the Halifax-based think-tank. But if all those factors don't line up then slow growth could continue for much longer. Chaundy wouldn't speculate for how long that could be.

Irving Oil Ltd. will make an announcement regarding the future of the project sometime in 2009, and if they go ahead they would see site preparation beginning in 2010, and construction in the years following.

"That remains to be seen given the current economic environment whether those timelines will stay, because we've seen several other projects in the region be delayed, a couple others have been cancelled," said Brannon.

Irving Oil spokeswoman Lesley MacLeod wouldn't reveal any details about the future of the project.

"We continue to believe in merits of the project," she said. "There are a number of challenges that we are addressing, and those challenges do include labour availability, rising capital costs, global competition from other projects. And the changing financial landscape, as well, is obviously a challenge."

She declined to comment on how Irving Oil would fund the $7 billion project if it goes forward.

Independent energy industry consultant Bill Simpkins emphasized the importance of energy production to prosperity and said "the need will be there."

"It's just a matter of time," he said. "But when you make that investment decision it is certainly up to investors."

Tuesday's conference also included a panel called Has the U.S. Lost its

Mojo?

Marcel LeBrun, CEO of Radian6, a Fredericton-based social media monitoring firm, said it hasn't.

"When I look at the economy and what's happening I don't really see our sector slowing down at all," he said.

Ninety-five per cent of Radian6's revenue comes from American clients.

Andrew Oland, president of Moosehead Breweries was less confident than LeBrun, but still optimistic.

"It's a big enough market. There are still lots of opportunities ... for a company like Moosehead," he said. "We're so small down there that economic fundamentals don't play out."

While Oland is worried about his American consumers he also concerned about his market in Ontario, given the trouble in the auto sector there

"We sell more beer now in Ontario than we do in New Brunswick," he said. "We could be hit on both sides."

Oland is also concerned that the American-Canadian border remains open.

"It hurts companies, individuals, families on both sides of the border when it becomes tightened," he said.